Biden fuels 2016 speculation with fundraisers in key Dem primary states

Vice President Biden will headline a pair of Democratic fundraisers this spring in crucial primary states, a scheduling decision likely to feed speculation that he is considering a White House bid.

The vice president will headline the Michigan Democratic Party's annual Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Detroit this April, the Associated Press reported Friday. The wire service also reported that Biden will go to Columbia, S.C., in May for that state's Democratic Party dinner.

South Carolina and Michigan are both among the early voting states that typically shape the Democratic Party's nominating process for the presidency.

It's not the first time Biden has targeted influential primary states. In January, he attended Iowa's inaugural ball in another move some political watchers viewed as a signal he is considering a White House run in 2016.

Biden would be an early favorite in the Democratic field if former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton opted against another run. The vice president signaled strong interest in a potential bid while campaigning for Obama’s reelection last fall.

President Obama is also planning to travel in April, with plans to headline his first Democratic fundraiser of the 2014 election cycle at an event next month in San Francisco with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif).

The White House has confirmed that the president intends to hold at least 14 fundraisers for Democratic congressional candidates, with 10 of the events set for outside of Washington, D.C.

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The call for Mickey Mouse as a write-in in the CA-DEM Primary!

Slightly contra Instapundit, this call for Mickey Mouse as a write-in on the California ballot is a blogger’s joke rather than an actual movement [UPDATE: I am informed in comments here that this is meant absolutely seriously; please be assured that I had no intention of mocking either the sentiment or the activity], but if it’s kidding then it’s kidding on the square. And it’s illustrating something that is perhaps being under-reported: the way that Obama’s not been doing all that well in the primaries for an incumbent.

I mean, yes: we’ve had it noted that Obama only racked up 59.4% of the West Virginia primary vote; 80.9% of New Hampshire’s; and 79.2% of North Carolina’s. But here are some other primary race vote totals, thus far (all via The Green Papers): Rhode Island, 83.4%. Louisiana, 76.5%. Alabama, 80.8%. Massachusetts, 81.2%, Oklahoma, 57.1%. To give you a baseline… if you remove places like American Samoa or Guam, if I read this right in 2004 George Bush never dipped below 89.5% (Idaho) of the primary vote in states he won and 79.6% (New Hampshire) in states that he didn’t. Other states of note in 2004, to give you an idea: Alabama, 92.8%. Kentucky, 92.5%. Massachusetts, 90.6%. Rhode Island, 84.9%.

I note the Bush comparison not to make a direct one – I do not think that we can really quantify the respective partisan enthusiasms of 2004 Republicans and 2012 Democrats. I do bring it up because it’s becoming clear that the Democratic voters in various states are getting restless. Or perhaps ‘volatile’ is a better word; while most of the Democrats voting in protest in the primaries will vote for Obama in the general, they’re generally not showing that they’re particularly happy about having to do that. And unhappy voters just… vote.

I would be interested to see how the media will report this if the trend continues, but unfortunately I don’t live in the alternate universe where mainstream media sources provide that kind of analysis on Democratic candidates.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: I really do want to caution people about reading too much into these numbers; a lot of these states have long histories of using the primaries to spout off. But if it’s legitimate to talk about North Carolina and West Virginia and New Hampshire, then it’s legitimate to note that the additional examples of Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Louisiana suggest that this is all not a series of unfortunate coincidences, or however that phrase goes.

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The (Currently) Embarrassing WI-GOV Recall Primary Results Thread.

Hey, I never said *who* it was embarrassing for.

I’m not really going to stay up and watch this one, but here’s a quick question spawned from the results thus far:

With 10% of the vote in, why does the Republican who isn’t actually REALLY in a contested primary have more votes (78,370) than all of the Democrats in the contested primary combined (69,627)?

[UPDATE: Well, now it's 16%, and Walker is continuing to do better than all the Democratic candidates on this one.  Democrats were supposed to be enthusiastic about this recall, yes?]

[ANOTHER UPDATE: Yes, I'm just being a troublemaker.  Your point?]

[POSSIBLY LAST UPDATE: Oh, OK, with 24% of the vote in the Democrats finally caught up to the guy without a real opponent.  Well, it was funny while it lasted.]

[ANOTHER UPDATE ON THE VERY HEELS OF THAT UPDATE: Spoke too soon!  Spoke too soon!  The full update has Scott Walker ahead again!  Time for a page break: this is actually starting to get interesting.]

[BLINKING UPDATE: At 44%... OK, look, I was expecting this to fizzle out by now.  I mean, as a matter of course when one side has a contested primary and the other doesn't then you tend to expect a certain amount of depressed voting totals on the uncontested side.  That is a thing that happens.  But if this was the election itself, right now Scott Walker would be winning.  This is not good news for the Democratic party, although it's certainly good news for the people of Wisconsin.]

[NOT POLL-WATCHING UPDATE UPDATE: Hey, guess who's suddenly having one of those Unity Rallies?  Why, Tom Barrett.  At his house. Because at 61% of the vote in, Scott Walker is now looming over his would-be opposition.  And Tommy there needs every one of those votes.]

[IS THIS THE UPDATE WHERE IT ALL CHANGES? At 68% it looks like the entire Democratic field, combined is close to collectively beating Scott Walker.]

[AND IT WAS A GOOD RUN WHILE IT LASTED UPDATE.  Congratulations, Wisconsin Democrats.  At 70% your five candidates, combined, finally managed to pass Scott Walker, who was 'running' against ... a guy who beat a LaFolette.  This was not a good night for your party.]

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Snatching Defeat From The Jaws of Victory: Texas Primary Update

My first introduction to politics was at 10 years old, volunteering with my parents on a State House campaign. What hooked me on political involvement was that we lost by 12 votes on a re-count and I knew that even at 10 years old I could have found 13 more votes if I’d have worked harder. 

The promise I’ve made myself in every election cycle since is that no matter what capacity I was working in, I would give everything I’ve got and that win or lose, I would know there wasn’t anything else I could have done to send my candidate to victory.

For the last three years I’ve been working full-time in conservative grassroots politics, training activists, identifying and equipping candidates. That’s been my universe and Texas has been at the center of it. During that time I’ve had the privilege of training and interacting with thousands of TEA Partiers and conservative activists who wan’t to move our state and country in the right direction.

Hundreds of thousands of conservatives across Texas have dedicated millions of man hours to get conservative candidates on the ballot for state office and volunteering for conservative causes during that time. All of this work now stands in peril.

After three years of preparation for this battle, the volunteer showing, financial contributions and effort from Texans for these state level races is frankly pathetic.

I’ve discussed this problem with TEA Party leaders, candidates and outside observers and it’s clear that the perception isn’t some figment of my imagination. The fact is that after three years of demanding conservative candidates and promising that they’d charge into fire to get them elected, Texas conservatives are on the verge of wasting a unprecedented opportunity.

Some of this is due to behind the scenes disputes and friction between big egos. Resurgent apathy and frustration with Federal level politics also plays a role. Neither of these are acceptable reasons to stand on the side lines.

We can argue about hurt feelings after we win. Until then, nobody on the left cares and we’ll accomplish nothing.

The Texas Primary Election is less than 2 months away. May 29 is D-day. There will only be about 10 competitive state house races in November but there are more than 60 state house primary elections in play on May 29! In some we’re playing defense (as with James White and David Simpson) but in most races we’re playing offense and have got strong conservatives on the ballot who have stepped up to our call of the last three years.

In the face of these incredible opportunities, we’re about to do what establishmentarians have said would happen all along!

If Texans don’t step up and make a statement on May 29th then much of the last three years will have been wasted effort. The preconceived notions of liberals within the Republican party will have been confirmed and we will have sent a generation of conservative candidates to be used as cannon fodder.

The primary election is really the only time that the vote of conservative Texans matters. We will vote in November for a Republican President & Senator, only a few US House seats will be competitive (if that) and the state legislatures will only have a handful of seats in play.

I’m confident that if I asked any group of conservatives or TEA partiers whether they would give their life for their country that every hand would raise. However, if I followed that up by asking for commitments to spend two hours block-walking or phone banking for conservative candidates, the hands would rapidly fall.

We’re not being asked to die for our country, risk our sacred honor, or even give up much of our modest fortunes. What we’re being asked to do, and what we must do to win, is commit to dedicating a few hours of our time between now and May 29th for a conservative candidate near us.

No number of hours spent in October will make up for a missed opportunity this May. There will be no chance for redemption.

The beauty of our situation is that it doesn’t require some Herculean effort to make a difference. A few hours of your time spent volunteering for a campaign, talking to your friends, registering voters or driving people to the polls could determine the outcome of these state and local races.

If you’re a conservative who wants to impact Texas’ future then now is your chance. It’s time to take action!

For a list of State House and Senate campaigns you can volunteer for, go to the Texas Action candidate database. 

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The Maryland (and other States) Primary Results Open Thread.

Maryland’s getting pride of place because it’s a) where I live and b) has actual, non-Presidential primaries tonight.  Presidential primary results here: Maryland’s state results are going to be… here, I guess.  Looks like (as of 8:30 PM) Romney won DC & MD; Dan Bongino is ahead in the MD-SEN nomination; and the may-not-recognize-her-luck Nancy Jacobs is ahead in the absolutely vital* MD-02 race.  Polls close at 9 PM in Wisconsin.

Open election thread.

*Look, I’ve been stuck dealing with either Steny Hoyer or Elijah Cummings as a representative since I moved to Maryland.  This is the first time I’ve lived in a Maryland district that merely has a single-digit Democratic PVI: people can let me have this.

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