Wednesday, March 27, 2013

BREAKING: Colorado Senate Approves Civil Unions Legislation

Civil unions sponsor Sen. Pat Steadman (D) speaking before supporters in May 2012.

Just now, the Colorado Senate voted 21-14 to approve Senate Bill 11, which would create civil unions for same-sex couples. This was the second of two readings, with a final vote expected on Monday. During the debate, several Republicans attempted to add various amendments that would create special religious protections for adoption agencies to discriminate against same-sex couples, but none of them passed. Denver area political reporter Eli Stokols pointed out that last year’s civil unions bill had such protections, but House Republicans went out of their way to block that bill from passing.

The bill is expected to advance quickly through the House this year. Not only did Democrats win control over the House, but they also elected openly gay Representative Mark Ferrandino (D), the bill’s sponsor, as Speaker of the House. A November poll found that 70 percent of Coloradans support legal recognition for same-sex couples.


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UPDATE 1-Amgen outlines pipeline, sees push into biosimilars

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Amgen Inc said on Thursday that between this year and 2016 it will have key late-stage data from eight experimental medicines, and that it expects generic versions of biotech drugs, known as biosimilars, to be a multi-billion dollar opportunity for the company.

Amgen Chief Executive Robert Bradway, at a meeting in New York with analysts and investors to provide an update to its business strategy, said the company plans to launch six biosimilars beginning in 2017 - four cancer drugs and two for inflammatory diseases.

The world's largest biotechnology company believes it has a unique capability to become a major player in biosimilars once U.S. health regulators finalize the approval pathway for such drugs, which are not identical matches of the branded medicines the way traditional generic versions of pills are.

Amgen also raised its 2013 earnings forecast to account for a tax credit due to federal settlements for prior years.

Amgen said that it now expects adjusted 2013 earnings of $7.05 per share to $7.35 per share, and that it would record the credit in the first quarter. The company last month had forecast earnings per share of $6.85 to $7.15.

The 2013 revenue forecast remains unchanged at $17.8 billion to $18.2 billion.

The company said it plans to continue to pursue strategic acquisitions, and that it expects to expand its business into Japan and China after 2016.

"We think this has the potential for a meaningful contribution to the business," Bradway said of long-term Asian expansion plans.


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Bachmann Keeps Seat On Intelligence Committee Despite Discredited Anti-Muslim Witch Hunt

Rep. Michele Bachmann

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) will remain a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence during the 113th Congress — despite leading a widely discredited anti-Muslim witch hunt against government personnel last year.

According to the committee list released Friday, Bachmann will stay on the powerful committee despite calls from People for the American Way and others for Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH) to remove her. Instead, Boehner in his statement making the announcement praised the lawmakers “charged sacred task of supporting that mission by ensuring the intelligence community has the resources and tools it needs to stay ahead of the evolving threats we face, and by conducting effective oversight of the administration.”

Dismay towards Bachmann’s continuing presence on the committee stems from her use of that position to lead a witch-hunt against then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s top aide Huma Abedin and other U.S. government personnel. In the letter sent to the State Department, Bachmann suggested that Abedin and others were allied with the Muslim Brotherhood, seeking to infiltrate the U.S. government and affect policy decisions. The charges were clearly false, based mostly on the conspiracy theories of noted Islamophobe Frank Gaffney.

Bachmann’s actions split the Republican Party, with several prominent members — including former Speaker Newt Gingrich and former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton — signing onto her conspiracies. Many other Republicans — including Boehner himself — abandoned Bachmann to her quixotic pursuit of imaginary infiltration. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), then-Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) and others joined President Obama and Clinton in condemning Bachmann’s scare tactics.

Joining Bachmann in being renamed to the committee are Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-GA) and Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL), who signed onto the original letter sent to State about Abedin. The clearly Islamophobic stances of these committee members makes their position on the committee, with its oversight of the National Security Agency and CIA’s activities, particularly troubling.

Bachmann in particular clearly learned nothing from her experience smearing Abedin. Not only did she stand by the content of her letter to State, as recently as December, but she also compared a letter from a Muslim advocacy group to Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf. (HT: Faiz Shakir)


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‘The Invisible War’ And How Movies Can Change Policy

I’ve been writing about The Invisible War, Kirby Dick’s documentary about the sexual assault epidemic in the military, since I saw it at Sundance last year. And now that it’s been nominated for an Academy Award, Dick and I sat down to discuss the movie’s impact, which Dick said had been a surprise:

Even before Hagel’s promise, The Invisible War was getting traction within the military itself, where it’s become a training tool and an agent of cultural change. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh screened The Invisible War for a meeting of wing commanders in November. And the rank and file are seeing the movie as well. Dick says that a distributor he works with who sells movies to the military and other institutions estimates that 235,000 service members—or nearly 10 percent of the 2.9 million members of the active and reserve armed forces—saw The Invisible War in 2012.

“The military itself is using the film for sexual-assault training, in part because, of course, they have no tools,” Dick said. “Eighty-five percent of those [viewers] are men. I think men seeing this is the real game changer, too. I think the film, not only on a policy level but on a cultural level, [is changing] the military. What people would joke about, you see this film and you don’t joke about it anymore.”

For all Dick is shocked by the failures of legislators and the military to act sooner, and by the Washington press corps for failing to investigate sexual assaults at Marine Barracks Washington—“There are documents, there is a lot of stuff there,” he said—he remains hopeful that the military can change, and that the rest of society can as well.

“The military’s done this before with racism. They could do it with this issue. And they could actually become a leader on the issue of sexual assault for the entire society,” he said. “There’s such divisiveness within this country, and especially around the military. There are a lot of issues with the military. But I think it’s a wonderful thought to think that civilians in society will look to the military as having been a leader in helping to reduce sexual assault across the country.”

It’s true that it’s easier—and probably better—for this to happen with documentaries than with feature films, television shows, or novels. But The Invisible War is one of the reasons I write about popular culture. You need narratives to push policy ideas forward. You need characters, be they human or fictional, to embody the impact of policies, or the lack thereof. And sometimes, people who have been deaf to the stories told by real people in their lives can hear those stories more clearly from the remove of a movie screen.


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Obama Nominee Would Be First Openly Gay Federal Court of Appeals Judge

Since taking office, President Obama has quadrupled the number of openly gay judges on the federal bench — although this is as much a testament to America’s long legacy of discrimination as it is to Obama’s commitment to diversity. Prior to Obama’s presidency, there was one openly gay judge with a lifetime appointment to the federal bench. Today, there are four.

All four of these out judges, however, are district judges — the lowest ranking federal judges. To date, no openly gay lawyer has served as a federal appellate judge or as a Supreme Court justice. In his first term, President Obama nominated openly gay attorney Edward DuMont to serve on the United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, but DuMont eventually withdrew his nomination after 18 months of “one or more members of the [Senate Judiciary] Committee minority” obstructing his confirmation.

Yesterday, the President announced he would take another shot at placing an openly gay judge on this same court, nominating Department of Justice attorney Todd Hughes to fill a seat on the Federal Circuit.

It is certainly good news that the President wants to welcome an openly gay judge into the federal appellate bench, but it should be noted that the Federal Circuit is a specialty court that deals primarily with patents. Obama deserves praise for showing a greater commitment to diversity on the bench than any of his predecessors, but there are also many talented gay attorneys (or even some Obama-appointed district judges) who would make excellent court of appeals judges on courts of general jurisdiction.

In any event, the paucity of gay judges in this country gives the lie to a claim conservative superlawyer Paul Clement made to the Supreme Court in his brief defending the unconstitutional Defense of Marriage Act. Clement wrote that gay people should not have equal rights because they are too powerful.


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CBO Is Increasingly Skeptical About ObamaCare

The latest report from the Congressional Budget Office highlights a number of reasons why the CBO is concerned about the implementation of Obamacare. It boils down to this: Obamacare is going to be more expensive than the Obama administration thought, disrupt the marketplace more than they thought, and be tougher to implement than they thought.

First, more expensive: The CBO significantly hiked the amount of money needed to fund the subsidies available through Obamacare's exchanges, hiking them by $233 billion. IBD explains: “The CBO's new baseline estimate shows that ObamaCare subsidies offered through the insurance exchanges — which are supposed to be up and running by next January — will total more than $1 trillion through 2022, up from $814 billion over those same years in its budget forecast made a year ago. That's an increase of nearly 29%. The CBO upped the 10-year subsidy cost by $32 billion since just last August.” Part of that is expecting more people in the exchanges thanks to employer dumping and more limited Medicaid expansion, but “The rest is largely the result of the CBO's sharp increase in what it expects the average subsidy will be. Last year, the CBO said the average exchange subsidy for those getting federal help when ObamaCare goes into effect next year would be $4,780. Its latest estimate raised that to $5,510 — a 15% increase. All these numbers are up even more from the CBO's original forecast made in 2010, which had the first-year subsidy average at $3,970.” 

Second, more disruptive: More employees will be dropped from their existing plans and fewer uninsured people will get coverage. The WSJ explains: “The CBO has long said it expects the new federal health law will prompt some companies to drop millions of employees from health plans because workers have new options to buy insurance on their own. In August, CBO put the number at four million over 10 years. Now it’s seven million. What changed? Nothing about the health law. Rather, the cliff deal that was enacted in January. When CBO crunched the numbers in August, it assumed that no cliff deal would be reached and higher tax rates would kick in. Economists typically assume that higher tax rates mean that more people are offered, and accept, employer-provided health benefits, says Paul Fronstin, a senior research associate at the Employee Benefit Research Institute. That’s because health benefits are tax-deductible for companies, and so are any premiums that the employee is required to contribute.”

Third, more difficult to implement: The CBO isn't buying the administration's repeated assurances that everything will be ready to go on time when it comes to the health insurance exchanges. From the report: “CBO and JCT [Joint Committee on Taxation] have slightly reduced their estimates of the rates at which people will enroll in the insurance exchanges or Medicaid as the expansion of coverage is implemented—a process that had already been anticipated to occur gradually. That change reflects the agencies’ judgment about a combination of factors, including the readiness of exchanges to provide a broad array of new insurance options, the ability of state Medicaid programs to absorb new beneficiaries, and people’s responses to the availability of the new coverage.”

National Journal explains: “Publicly, administration officials have promised that the new exchanges will be ready on time… But the CBO report expresses skepticism… In plain language, that means CBO thinks the marketplaces won’t have many insurance choices, the Medicaid enrollment systems will not be ready for new people to enroll, and people will be less enthusiastic about signing up for new insurance options.”

Taken together, this is a report that shows how already, Obamacare is failing to match the hopes of its creators in many respects. Expect this trend to continue in future years. This is going to be a lot of political fractiousness and market disruption over a policy which may ultimately end up nudging the insured percentage up only slightly.

Benjamin Domenech is editor of The Transom. Click here to subscribe.


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Intermission

The bridge is yours.

-Sam Lipsyte on the art of writing sex scenes.

-I like that everyone is discovering what I knew all along: that Channing Tatum is good at his chosen profession of acting.

-Gloria Steinem on Girls.

-Does continuing to watch Community present a moral crisis?

-Lizzy Caplan Forever:


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How The GOP Would Make Undocumented Immigrants America’s Next Permanent Underclass

Conservatives in the House of Representatives are rejecting the growing bipartisan consensus for permitting undocumented immigrants to earn citizenship. Instead, one prominent negotiatior, Rep. Raúl Labrador (R-ID), suggested a legal status “compromise” that would keep 11 million immigrants in a probationary grey area for an indefinite period of time, unable to participate in the full rights of citizenship. As the Washington Post warned, this so-called compromise would establish “a permanent underclass of workers.”

Creating a second class of Americans is not only unsustainable, but also damages the so-called American dream of equality and justice for all — a point proven each time the US has used the law to exclude a group in its history.


After the founding of the nation, lawmakers stipulated that citizenship excluded free and enslaved Africans, who comprised roughly 20 percent of the entire American population in 1776. The Supreme Court reaffirmed in the infamous Dred Scott decision that slaves could not claim citizenship, as they were considered property by the law. After the abolition of slavery, the law’s silence left African Americans in a legal limbo that denied them the right to vote and set the foundation for widespread segregation and economic exploitation. Even after the 14th and 15th Amendments nominally granted them full citizenship rights, state laws instituting poll taxes and literacy tests, as well as segregation and anti-miscegenation laws, immobilized African Americans in a second class of citizenship.


The Mexican-American War ended in 1848 with the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, in which Mexico ceded the land that is now the American Southwest. In return, all Mexicans living on that land were to be granted full US citizenship. However, Congress and the Supreme Court denied American citizenship to Pueblo Indians and black Mexicans, though both groups had previously enjoyed Mexican citizenship. Pueblo Indians’ right to vote was revoked until 1924. Black Mexicans in Texas were given the choice to either stay in Texas and become slaves or be deported back to Mexico, where slavery was outlawed. Meanwhile, the courts chipped away at the property protections entitled to Mexican landowners as US citizens. Many new Mexican Americans lost their family land to white American settlers, throwing them into poverty for generations. Of course, Pueblos and black Mexicans’ property rights were immediately nullified.


After initially encouraging Chinese migrant workers to come to the US and work on the Transcontinental Railroad, Congress passed the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 to halt all immigration from China. At that point, large communities of Chinese immigrants, mainly in California, were permanently excluded from US citizenship. The law also threw families in limbo, as Chinese men could neither bring their families to the US nor leave the country, as they would be barred from re-entry to the US. Amendments to the law extended the law blocking entry to all Asians regardless of their country of origin — even those born in the US. American-born Chinese who traveled abroad were blocked from returning to their homes in the US. These restrictions pulled families apart and ensured that Chinese American communities already established would stagnate for four decades.


Japanese Americans were singled out as enemies during World War II and ordered to relocate to internment camps for the duration of the war. Japanese immigrants were already blocked from becoming full citizens, as naturalization laws banned citizenship for non-white people. American citizens of Japanese descent, however, were not spared from the internment camps, where they endured abysmal, overcrowded conditions for 3 years. When they returned, most found their homes looted or sold and their jobs long gone.

If this latest immigration reform does not include a path to citizenship, the shadow economy that exploits the ambiguous legal status of undocumented immigrants today could be cemented for decades to come.

Though the rights and restrictions of a second-class legal status are not yet articulated, Republicans have previously suggested granting permanent residency to undocumented immigrants who meet certain criteria. But while permanent residents can apply for full citizenship after 5 years, undocumented immigrants would likely never attain naturalization. They would have limited access to health care, while certain other economic benefits, such as federal student loans, would be closed off entirely. They would also be denied the right to vote.

Without a path to citizenship, undocumented immigrants will officially inherit the mantle of the many Americans who have endured inferior rights based on a narrow idea of who “deserves” to be an American.


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Fact Sheet: Examples of How the Sequester Would Impact Middle Class Families, Jobs and Economic Security

The White House

Office of the Press Secretary

Unless Congress acts by March 1st, a series of automatic cuts—called a sequester—that threaten thousands of jobs and the economic security of the middle class will take effect.  There is no question that we need to cut the deficit, but the President believes it should be done in a balanced way that protects investments that the middle class relies on.  Already, the President has worked with Congress to reduce the deficit by more than $2.5 trillion, but there’s more to do.  The President believes we can not only avoid the harmful effects of a sequester but also reduce the deficit by $4 trillion total by cutting even more wasteful spending and eliminating tax loopholes for the wealthy.

Unfortunately, many Republicans in Congress refuse to ask the wealthy to pay a little more by closing tax loopholes so that we can protect investments that are helping grow our economy and keep our country safe.  Our economy is poised to take off but we cannot afford a self-inflicted wound from Washington.  We cannot simply cut our way to prosperity, and if Republicans continue to insist on an unreasonable cuts-only approach, the middle class risks paying the price.  The most damaging effects of a sequester on the middle class are:

• Cuts to education: Our ability to teach our kids the skills they’ll need for the jobs of the future would be put at risk.  70,000 young children would be kicked off Head Start, 10,000 teacher jobs would be put at risk, and funding for up to 7,200 special education teachers, aides, and staff could be cut.

• Cuts to small business: Small businesses create two-thirds of all new jobs in America and instead of helping small businesses expand and hire, the automatic cuts triggered by a sequester would reduce loan guarantees to small businesses by up to $902 million.

• Cuts to food safety: Outbreaks of foodborne illness are a serious threat to families and public health.  If a sequester takes effect, up to 2,100 fewer food inspections could occur, putting families at risk and costing billions in lost food production.

• Cuts to research and innovation: In order to compete for the jobs of the future and to ensure that the next breakthroughs to find cures for critical diseases are developed right here in America, we need to continue to lead the world in research and innovation.  Most Americans with chronic diseases don’t have a day to lose, but under a sequester progress towards cures would be delayed and several thousand researchers could lose their jobs.  Up to 12,000 scientists and students would also be impacted.

• Cuts to mental health: If a sequester takes effect, up to 373,000 seriously mentally ill adults and seriously emotionally disturbed children could go untreated. This would likely lead to increased hospitalizations, involvement in the criminal justice system, and homelessness for these individuals.

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) now calculates that sequestration will require an annual reduction of roughly 5 percent for nondefense programs and roughly 8 percent for defense programs.  However, given that these cuts must be achieved over only seven months instead of 12, the effective percentage reductions will be approximately 9 percent for nondefense programs and 13 percent for defense programs.  These large and arbitrary cuts will have severe impacts across the government.

More detailed explanations of these cuts as well as additional areas that will be impacted include:

Security and Safety

• FBI and other law enforcement – The FBI and other law enforcement entities would see a reduction in capacity equivalent to more than 1,000 Federal agents.  This loss of agents would significantly impact our ability to combat violent crime, pursue financial crimes, secure our borders, and protect national security.

• U.S. Attorneys – The Department of Justice would prosecute approximately 1,000 fewer criminal cases nationwide, and some civil litigation defending the financial interests of the United States would not be pursued, potentially costing taxpayers billions of dollars.

• Emergency responders – FEMA would need to reduce funding for State and local grants that support firefighter positions and State and local emergency management personnel, hampering our ability to respond to natural disasters like Hurricane Sandy and other emergencies.

Research and Innovation

• NIH research – The National Institutes of Health (NIH) would be forced to delay or halt vital scientific projects and make hundreds of fewer research awards.  Since each research award supports up to seven research positions, several thousand personnel could lose their jobs.  Many projects would be difficult to pursue at reduced levels and would need to be cancelled, putting prior year investments at risk.  These cuts would delay progress on the prevention of debilitating chronic conditions that are costly to society and delay development of more effective treatments for common and rare diseases affecting millions of Americans. 
• NSF research – The National Science Foundation (NSF) would issue nearly 1,000 fewer research grants and awards, impacting an estimated 12,000 scientists and students and curtailing critical scientific research. 

• New drug approvals – The FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) would face delays in translating new science and technology into regulatory policy and decision-making, resulting in delays in new drug approvals.  The FDA would likely also need to reduce operational support for meeting review performance goals, such as the recently negotiated user fee goals on new innovative prescription drugs and medical devices.

Economic Growth

• Small business assistance – Small Business Administration (SBA) loan guarantees would be cut by up to $902 million, constraining financing needed by small businesses to maintain and expand their operations and create jobs.

• Economic development – The Economic Development Administration’s (EDA) ability to leverage private sector resources to support projects that spur local job creation would be restricted, likely resulting in more than 1,000 fewer jobs created than expected and leaving more than $47 million in private sector investment untapped.  

• International trade – The International Trade Administration (ITA) would be forced to reduce its support for America’s exporters, trimming assistance to U.S. businesses looking to increase their exports and expand operations into foreign markets.  In addition, ITA would not be able to place staff in critical international growth markets, where there is a clear business opportunity for many American businesses to increase their sales and create jobs at home. These staff would have been part of a key program working to promote and facilitate global investment in the U.S., supporting thousands of new jobs through Foreign Direct Investment.  

Government Services

• Food safety – The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) could conduct 2,100 fewer inspections at domestic and foreign facilities that manufacture food products while USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) may have to furlough all employees for approximately two weeks.   These reductions could increase the number and severity of safety incidents, and the public could suffer more foodborne illness, such as the recent salmonella in peanut butter outbreak and the E. coli illnesses linked to organic spinach, as well as cost the food and agriculture sector millions of dollars in lost production volume. 

• IRS customer service and tax compliance – The cuts to operating expenses and expected furloughs at the IRS would result in the inability of millions of taxpayers to get answers from IRS call centers and taxpayer assistance centers and would significantly delay IRS responses to taxpayer letters.  The IRS would be forced to complete fewer tax return reviews and would experience reduced capacity to detect and prevent fraud, resulting in an inability to collect and protect billions of dollars in revenue annually.  Cuts to the IRS would ultimately cost taxpayers and increase the deficit through lost revenue from recoveries and additional fraud and abuse.

• Native American programs - Tribes would lose almost $130 million in funding from the Department of the Interior.   Reductions would be necessary in many areas including human services, law enforcement, schools, economic development and natural resources. 

• Workplace safety – The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) could have to pull its inspectors off the job for some period of time. This would mean roughly 1,200 fewer inspections of the Nation’s most dangerous workplaces, which would leave workers unprotected and could lead to an increase in worker fatality and injury rates.

Education

• Title I education funds – Title I education funds would be eliminated for more than 2,700 schools, cutting support for nearly 1.2 million disadvantaged students.  This funding reduction would put the jobs of approximately 10,000 teachers and aides at risk.  Students would lose access to individual instruction, afterschool programs, and other interventions that help close achievement gaps.

• Special education (IDEA) – Cuts to special education funding would eliminate Federal support for more than 7,200 teachers, aides, and other staff who provide essential instruction and support to preschool and school-aged students with disabilities.

• Head Start – Head Start and Early Head Start services would be eliminated for approximately 70,000 children, reducing access to critical early education.  Community and faith based organizations, small businesses, local governments, and school systems would have to lay off over 14,000 teachers, teacher assistants, and other staff.

Economic Security

• Social Security applicant and beneficiary services – The Social Security Administration (SSA) would be forced to curtail service to the public and reduce program oversight efforts designed to make sure benefits are paid accurately and to the right people.  Potential effects on SSA operations could include a reduction in service hours to the public, the closure of some offices, and a substantial growth in the backlog of Social Security disability claims.

• Senior meals – Federally-assisted programs like Meals on Wheels would be able to serve 4 million fewer meals to seniors.  These meals contribute to the overall health and well-being of participating seniors, including those with chronic illnesses that are affected by diet, such as diabetes and heart disease, and frail seniors who are homebound.  The meals can account for 50 percent or more of daily food for the majority of home delivered participants.

• Nutrition assistance for women, infants and children – Approximately 600,000 women and children would be dropped from the Department of Agriculture’s Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) from March through September.  At least 1,600 State and local jobs could be lost as a result.

• Rental assistance – The Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Housing Choice Voucher program, which provides rental assistance to very low-income families, would face a significant reduction in funding, which would place about 125,000 families at immediate risk of losing their permanent housing. 

• Emergency unemployment compensation – People receiving Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits would see their benefits cut by as much as 9.4 percent.   Affected long-term unemployed individuals would lose an average of more than $400 in benefits that they and their families count on while they search for another job. Smaller unemployment checks will also have a negative impact on the economy as a whole.  Economists have estimated that every dollar in unemployment benefits generates $2 in economic activity.

• Homelessness programs – More than 100,000 formerly homeless people, including veterans, would be removed from their current housing and emergency shelter programs, putting them at risk of returning to the streets.

Public Health

• Mental health and substance abuse services – Cuts to the Mental Health Block Grant program would result in over 373,000 seriously mentally ill adults and seriously emotionally disturbed children not receiving needed mental health services. This cut would likely lead to increased hospitalizations, involvement in the criminal justice system, and homelessness for these individuals.  In addition, close to 8,900 homeless persons with serious mental illness would not get the vital outreach, treatment, housing, and support they need through the Projects for Assistance in Transition from Homelessness (PATH) program.

• AIDS and HIV treatment and prevention – Cuts to the AIDS Drug Assistance Program could result in 7,400 fewer patients having access to life saving HIV medications.  And approximately 424,000 fewer HIV tests could be conducted by Centers for Disease Control (CDC) State grantees, which could result in increased future HIV transmissions, deaths from HIV, and costs in health care.  

 Tribal services – The Indian Health Service and Tribal hospitals and clinics would be forced to provide 3,000 fewer inpatient admissions and 804,000 fewer outpatient visits, undermining needed health care in Tribal communities.

Extending Middle Class Tax Cuts

President Obama urges Congress to act to avoid a series of harmful and automatic cuts—called a sequester—from going into effect that would hurt our economy and the middle class and threaten thousands of American jobs.

Here's quick glimpse at what happened this week on WhiteHouse.gov.

Vice President Biden's Chief of Staff Bruce Reed sat down with us to give us a quick update on the work the President and Vice President have been doing since the President released his plan to reduce gun violence.

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Open Thread Plus Cartoon

Opine away!

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Press Gaggle by Press Secretary Jay Carney, Federal Controller of OMB Danny Werfel, and Principal Deputy Director of NEC Jason Furman on the Impact of the Sequester, 02/08/2013

The White House

Office of the Press Secretary

James S. Brady Press Briefing Room

12:40 P.M. EST

MR. CARNEY:  Thank you all for being here.  As I think we advised earlier today for this gaggle, I have with me Danny Werfel, Federal Controller for the Office of Management and Budget; as well as Jason Furman, Principal Deputy Director of the National Economic Council.  They’re here to discuss with you what would be the devastating impacts of the sequester if it is allowed to take effect, if Congress fails to do the responsible thing, which is to give itself the time and space it needs to pursue a broader budget that would achieve deficit reduction in a balanced way. 

So I will turn it over first to Danny Werfel and then to Jason.

MR. WERFEL:  Thank you, Jay.  I know all of you have a paper that was provided that has information on the impacts of the sequester on the domestic side.  I want to take a moment and talk about how the across-the-board cuts under sequestration would operate and why they would be so harmful to our nation. 

I want to emphasize that the administration believes sequestration is bad policy that was never intended to be implemented.  It was intended to drive both Democrats and Republicans in Congress to compromise.  Sequester is a blunt and indiscriminate instrument that poses a serious threat to our national security, domestic priorities, and the economy.  And it does not represent a responsible way to achieve deficit reduction.

As I think you’re all aware, the fiscal cliff deal included a fully paid-for two-month delay in sequestration, pushing the scheduled implementation date back to March 1st, which is now three weeks away.  The deal did lower the amount of the sequester cut for this year to $85 billion, but this is obviously still a very substantial amount.  And we now have a shortened timeframe for achieving the cut -- seven months. 

OMB now calculates that sequestration will require an annual reduction of roughly 5 percent for nondefense programs and roughly 8 percent for defense programs.  However, given that these cuts must be achieved over only a seven-month period instead of a twelve-month period, the effective percentage reductions will be approximately 9 percent for nondefense programs and 13 percent for defense programs.  These are large and arbitrary cuts, and will have severe impacts across government.

On multiple occasions, the President has laid his plan for more than $4 trillion in balanced deficit reduction, and he has demonstrated his strong commitment and willingness to reach agreement on further balanced deficit reduction that avoids sequestration.  If we do not get an agreement to avoid the sequester, as I mentioned earlier, there would be significant and harmful consequences across the spectrum of both domestic and defense priorities.  And from the document that was provided, you can see that the cuts would cause very significant disruptions that would be felt far and wide across the country.

There has been in the public domain a lot of discussion to date about the impact that the sequester would have on the defense realm.  And let me be clear, those impacts would be severe and must not be allowed to occur.  As Secretary Panetta and General Dempsey have both said on numerous occasions, sequestration would create a serious crisis in military readiness and pose the risk of creating a hollow force by undercutting the essential services, equipment, and support our Armed Forces rely on.

But the impacts on our domestic priorities as a nation would be just as severe.  Let me go through some of the examples.  Six hundred thousand women and children would lose vital nutrition assistance.  Not only would this reduce essential benefits that these families depend on, but it could cost at least 1,600 state and local jobs due to reduced federal funding. 

Approximately 70,000 children would lose Head Start and Early Head Start services.  The National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation would have to significantly cut back or delay thousands of research grants and awards, setting back progress on research into life-threatening illnesses and costing tens of thousands of jobs for scientists and students. 

The Food and Drug Administration and the Department of Agriculture would have to cut back on food inspections, leaving the country more vulnerable to public health risks due to foodborne illnesses.  The FBI would have to reduce its law enforcement capacity.  FEMA would have to eliminate funding for firefighters and other emergency personnel.  And the Justice Department would have to furlough hundreds of federal prosecutors.

As you can see, in the list that we distributed there are more impacts that I do not cover here.  The list that you have has additional ones, and this is just the tip of the iceberg.  There are many, many other impacts that are not in the document.  The document just represents some of the ones that we’re highlighting.

Across the government we’ll see assistance programs slashed; we’ll see contracts cut; we’ll see employees out of work.  And we’ll have no choice.  The blunt, irresponsible, and severe nature of sequestration means that we can’t plan our way out of these consequences or take steps to soften the blow.

To reiterate, that’s why it is so critical that Congress acts swiftly to avoid these cuts through a balanced approach to further deficit reduction.  Instead of arbitrary, across-the-board cuts, we need to be carefully reducing the deficit in a way that protects the most vulnerable, protects critical priorities, creates jobs, and strengthens the middle class.

Let me turn it over to Jason Furman who is going to talk through some additional issues from his perspective.

MR. FURMAN:  Thank you.  And after the President’s experience with the cameramen Tuesday, I told Jay I’d only come back here if they weren’t here, so thank you for that.  (Laughter.)

I just want to underscore some of Danny’s points and put a tiny bit of broader economic context around it.  Danny went through the programmatic consequences -- what this would mean for education, medical, research, public safety, and a whole range of things.  And those would all be very damaging and very severe. 

The sequester would also have broader and very negative consequences for the economy as a whole.  And private forecasters, the Congressional Budget Office, and others have estimated that if the sequester hit you would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs as a result.  And we got a tiny bit of a preview of what that might look like in the fourth quarter GDP numbers, where GDP contracted because of a large contraction in defense spending that was, at least in part, due just to fears about the sequester before it even started to hit.

That type of contraction in the deficit, a very large and abrupt and immediate and poorly implemented one in 2013, is especially unnecessary because of the trajectory of what's happening to the deficit right now.  We've made enormous progress in bringing the deficit down over the last four years.  We are slated to make a lot of progress to bring the deficit down over the next couple of years.  The big challenge we have is over the medium and long terms.  Let me talk about that first part first, and then about the medium and long term. 

The deficit this year is projected to be about 5 percent of GDP.  It's come down by nearly 5 percentage points in the last four years.  That’s the most rapid pace of deficit reduction the United States has seen since the end of World War II.  The reason we're seeing this is in part due to the recovery of the economy, but also in part because the President has already signed into law $2.5 trillion of deficit reduction, including $1.4 trillion of spending cuts through the continuing resolutions and Budget Control Act, and another $600 billion of revenue from high-income households in the tax agreement and then the associated intrasavings.

So that $2.5 trillion gets you more than halfway to the $4 trillion that you need to stabilize your debt over the long term, and it actually has been sufficient to be bringing your deficit down quite strongly over the short run.

What we do need, though, is a lot more medium- and long-term deficit reduction.  And that’s the second reason why it would be a real shame to just take the attitude that we should just let the sequester hit rather than doing something else; take the attitude that, oh, the sequester is spending cuts, we want spending cuts, let's just do it that way.  That’s not just programmatically damaging for the reasons that Danny outlined, it's not just macroeconomically damaging in terms of costing jobs, it also misses a really huge opportunity for this country -- one that I think Democrats and Republicans should be able to agree is a better approach than this type of blunt, mindless, bad-policy approach.

And that’s an approach that, one, the President came out and reiterated -- in fact, reiterated it twice in his remarks in this briefing room on Tuesday -- and that’s the type of big deal that still remains on the table, from his perspective.  And that’s a big deal that includes health savings that, in the tenth year, would match or exceed the savings in Bowles-Simpson and would grow more quickly over time.  So you would actually have more health savings than in the sequester, more health savings over the long term than in Bowles-Simpson.  That would include tax reform that could do something like on corporate tax rates, bring our rates down a lot and make our country more competitive.  And that's an approach that would also bring us more deficit reduction, amount of deficit reduction sufficient to bring down and ultimately stabilize our debt measured as a share of the economy.

Of course, as the President said, there’s not time to do all of that in the next couple of weeks, first of all.  Second of all, there's been interest on a bipartisan basis in Congress in proceeding through budget resolutions in something more like regular order to bring this all about.  That's a process that takes time. 

So what we're trying to do now is make sure that Congress can buy the time it needs in order to do this entitlement reform, tax reform that's a much better solution to our problems than letting the sequester hit, and doing that in a balanced way with a combination of revenue and spending that would buy you some time on the sequester.  The whole goal of buying that time is not for the sake of buying time; it's for the sake of buying time to do something that's a lot bigger and a lot better than the sequester in terms of entitlement reform, tax reform, stabilizing our deficit and ultimately the goal being creating jobs and economic growth.

MR. CARNEY:  So if we could have questions for these two gentlemen.  And if we have a little time at the back, I'll be here for a few minutes after that.

Questions?  Roger. 

Q    When you just said that you'd like to buy time on the sequester, you're saying postpone March 1st, but substitute what?

MR. FURMAN:  A balanced combination of spending and revenue measures.  We have already had an example of this with the two-month delay that we did as part of the ATRA.  And we're talking about something like that.  I'm not saying another two months.  That's something Congress would need to work out the period.  Congress would need to work out --  

Q    Harry Reid said like three months or something.

MR. FURMAN:  Congress really needs to work out the amount of time.  Congress needs to work out the amount of pay-fors.  Where we're coming from is that we'd want to see -- and I don't think you could pass the Senate without seeing something that has a balance of revenue and spending.  And we had a template for that in the ATRA.  And that's the type of thing we'd like to see going forward.

I don't know the exact amount of time you'd need for a bigger budget agreement.  It doesn't appear that this Congress would be able to do that in the next three weeks, so we certainly need more time than that.

Q    Does the White House have an offer?

MR. FURMAN:  What?

Q    Does the White House have an offer?

MR. FURMAN:  Yes, we have -- the President said that his -- the offers that he made in December remain on the table.  So he has a plan on the table.

Q    The numbers here, do they come from Treasury or OMB?  And how do you know that this sort of dire portrait that you paint of life under sequester will actually happen if the sequester goes through?

MR. WERFEL:  The numbers actually come from the federal agencies that are responsible for carrying out the program.  So HHS, for example, helped analyze the situation and develop a Head Start assessment and so on.  And these are experts, programmatic experts.  They are constantly monitoring the manner in which federal dollars go into the field and how they're impacted, and they're evaluating what a very significant and sudden arbitrary cut would do.  And so we rely on the agencies to provide that expertise.

Q    Could you talk about how this thing would be implemented?  Is it a cliff?  Is it a slope?  Do 800 women lose their nutrition on March 1st?  Or how does it work?

MR. WERFEL:  So from a technical standpoint, what happens is that if we have to issue the sequester order and move into this phase on March 1st, essentially it cancels $85 billion in budgetary resources that agencies previously had available.  So they now have to get to the end of the fiscal year, across government, on a budget that now has $85 billion less than it once did. 

Now, agencies are going to have to carry out and get to the finish line in a way that's most effective to meet their mission.  And so, in some cases, I think you’ll see variation.  In some cases, you’ll see immediate impacts.  And in some cases, agencies will work out those changes to their programs and their structures over time.  So there’s no easy answer to say what the world is going to look like on March 2nd.  We just know that these impacts -- while not all of them immediate -- if we don't take action, they will take place.

Q    Has the administration started to put any contingency plans in place?  And just to go back to the time issue again, is there a minimum length of time the President would accept, a couple of months -- three to six?

MR. FURMAN:  I think on the time we said that's something we want Congress to work out.  And certainly three months [sic] isn’t enough time to come to the type of agreement we’d like to come to.

MR. EARNEST:  Three weeks.

MR. FURMAN:  Three weeks, sorry.  I’m sorry.  I meant three weeks is certainly not enough time.

MR. WERFEL:  And on the contingency plan, remember sequester was scheduled to take place initially in January.  Prior to that, as there was uncertainty around a fiscal cliff deal, OMB was working with federal agencies on their planning activities, and obviously we’ve resumed that in anticipation of March 1st.  So agencies are working through exactly how they are going to execute under this very significant cut in their budgetary resources.  Those planning activities are ongoing.

Q    Have agencies started to issue letters to employees warning of furlough and the like?  Or when will that start happening?

MR. WERFEL:  So what happened as recently as last week is agency heads sent notices out to their broad base of employees kind of updating them on where things are in terms of sequester planning, and did in that message -- many of these agencies sent this type of message -- indicated that, unfortunately, in order to meet these budget cuts, that furloughs in many cases are a likely outcome in order to do this.  Now, that was in a broad way.

Under the law, before an employee can be furloughed, they need a specific notice of their furlough with a specific amount of time.  In most cases, it’s 30 days, but it depends on a lot of different factors.  But as a general rule, a 30-day notice is typically what’s required.

I’m not aware of any specific notices that have been issued.  But if we go past this date, there’s certainly -- there’s no way to implement the sequester without significant furloughs of hundreds of thousands of federal employees.

Q    Do you have any more specific number on that?  How many employees and contract employees would be facing this?

MR. WERFEL:  At this point in time I don’t have a specific estimate.  I just know it’s high; it’s in the hundreds of thousands of employees, but I don’t have a specific estimate. 

Q    And just -- can you give me an understanding of what the sequester -- how much it ties your hands -- I mean, the individual agencies.  Because some might say, well, why do you have to cut these crucial programs; couldn’t you find some ways elsewhere?  But does it really tie your hands as to where you can make those cuts?

MR. WERFEL:  It does. 

Q    And how?

MR. WERFEL:  And if you’ll indulge me to be a little bit technical.  What happens is, OMB, we take this amount, this $85 billion that we have to cut, and we apply it to every account in government.  Every account has to be cut by a certain percentage.  It’s not like the agencies can move money amongst accounts.  But it’s even worse than that.  Even at the subaccount, there’s something called Program, Project and Activity, which exists within each account.  And the way the sequester law is written, is that even -- underneath the account, even at the Program, Project and Activity, they all need to be cut by that same percentage.

So, for example, FAA, they have to cut resources in a way that’s going to impact the air traffic controller workforce.  There’s no way to basically say, well, we’ll move -- we’ll try to take all the cuts in this area, like maintenance or custodial work.  It’s not possible to do that because the law is written with such stricture that the cuts have to be taken at such a granular level.  And that’s why when I say it’s across the board, indiscriminate --

Q    But if Congress can’t agree on substitute cuts, could they pass a provision saying that the agency would have more leeway; you would still need to cut the same percentage from each department or each agency, but you have more leeway and you don’t have to go into -- you don’t have to cut air traffic controllers for God’s sake?  You can cut something else?

MR. WERFEL:  I mean, we’ve looked at this question.  We don’t see a way in which you can cut $85 billion over a seven-month period and not have significantly harmful impacts to our priorities, both domestic and defense.

Q    Three quick questions.  Is there anything on this list you could live with cutting in a deal that would be worked out with Congress, or does everything here have to stay?  Question one.  Jason, for you -- if there is a two- or three-month continuous delay of the sequester, based on what you saw in the fourth quarter, do you believe there is an economic harm just associated with that two- or three-month process?  And lastly, looking at all this, do you regret that this White House suggested this in the first place?

MR. CARNEY:  I’ll take the last one.  (Laughter.)

MR. WERFEL:  I’m not involved in the specific negotiations and I think that’s details that Congress is going to need to be worked out.  I think what we’ve outlined here is impacts are extraordinarily troublesome.  I couldn’t pull one out and say, yes, the defense priorities, the domestic priorities, health, education -- it’s hard for me to isolate one of those and say this is something that we should tolerate.  But, again, that’s not really my decision.  There’ll be -- Congress needs to do its work and then ultimate decisions will be made.  And the President will make a decision on the best interests of the nation.

MR. FURMAN:  Right now, Major, there’s two options on the table.  One is the sequester hits, and the second is there’s a short-term delay of the sequester.  There’s no question that economically that second option, a short-term delay of the sequester, would be far superior to the former.

What would make that option even better is if American people and American businesses really appreciated that the reason you are doing that was in order to build time and space for something that was even better than either of those options, which was more medium- and long-term deficit reduction, reforming our entitlements, reforming our tax code, making ourselves more competitive, and permanently ending this fiscal cliff after fiscal cliff.  There’s no question that that’s better. 

And part of what we’ve tried to convince people is, A, the short term is much better than nothing -- much, much better than nothing; and, B, the short term will be even better if people see it as momentum and movement towards continuing to solve our problems.

MR. CARNEY:  The notion much propounded by the spin doctors on the Republican side that the sequester is somehow something that the White House or the President alone wanted or desired is a fanciful confection.  The fact of the matter is, as I think you all recall in the wake of the passage of the Budget Control Act, it was the Republicans, including the Republican Leader of the House, who celebrated it as getting 98 percent of what they wanted.

The sequester was designed as a means of creating a trigger that would get us out of what was a terrible situation that was already doing enormous harm to our economy, which we now know, and that was the threat of default.  It was designed by Republicans and Democrats to be so onerous that it would never come into place because it would force and compel Congress to do something more responsible, which is reduce the deficit -- not through spending cuts alone -- but reduce the deficit by $1.2 trillion.

Finally, I would note it was certainly our preference, the White House’s preference, the administration’s preference, even in the sequester process, that it would be -- that revenues would be part of sequester -- revenues as well as defense and nondefense cuts.  Republicans adamantly refused to go along with that proposition.  Had they not, we would be in certainly a different situation today than we are now.

So I understand that it’s a convenient bit of spin but it’s also a lot of baloney.  

Q    But does he regret it anyway?  I mean, regardless of whose idea it was, does he now, looking at all of the consequences that are --

MR. CARNEY:  What he regrets is that we ever had a circumstance like this country was forced to contend with in the summer of 2011 that there was a certain amount of enthusiasm even within the Republican Party, especially within the House, for the prospect of the United States defaulting on its obligations for the first time in its history -- an enthusiasm that somehow was linked to a belief that it would help the Republican Party achieve ideological goals that the nation overwhelmingly rejected -- rejected then, rejected last year, rejected in the campaign, rejected at the end of the year when we had our fiscal cliff negotiation, and rejects today.

So that the President regrets.  He could not let the country default for the first time, and thus the sequester and the Budget Control Act and everything associated with it, including the super committee, was born.  The whole point in its design was that it would never come to pass.  If Republicans would go along with the simple proposition that the American people overwhelmingly support -- which is that we need a balanced approach to further deficit reduction -- we would have solved this already.

It has been, I think to their -- it's been their loss, in terms of public opinion, that they've refused to go along with this.  And it has been to the country's detriment, because we keep having to deal with these manufactured crises that are terrible for the economy, that hardly inspire confidence with the American people or globally in our capacity to deal with our fiscal challenges. 

We need to return to normalcy when it comes to how we debate and decide these issues.  That’s why we need to -- failing a big deal now, we need to pass an extension, a short-term buy-down, to allow Congress to do what it seems to be inclined to do, which is to return a semblance of regular order and a budget process that hopefully will result in a final product that reflects the proposition of balance that is supported by the vast majority of the American people, by Republicans and Democrats across the country.  And that’s what the President hopes.

Q    To follow up on a previous question, what’s -- you laid out the two scenarios.  What is your best estimate of the hit to GDP if the sequester takes effect or if there’s that short-term uncertainty?

MR. FURMAN:  We don't have an estimate.  Others, independent forecasters, CBO have done estimates.  And it’s important to put it in context, which is that we did solve the majority of the fiscal cliff at the end of December.  The largest item was what was going to happen on taxes, and then we also dealt with the SGR and unemployment insurance. 

But there’s no question defense spending was the difference between a positive GDP number and a negative GDP number in the fourth quarter.  I’m not saying that it would be the difference between that again in the future, but there’s no question that this would make a big difference and, as I said, hundreds of thousands of jobs and a commensurate amount of GDP would be lost as a result relative to what otherwise would have happened.

Q    Do you agree with CBO’s estimates on the impact of the sequester?

MR. FURMAN:  We don't have a specific opinion on CBO’s, but they're never very far off in terms of something like this.  So maybe they're a little high, maybe a little too low.  Maybe you could argue one way or the other, but certainly, they and other forecasters are in the right ballpark in terms of hundreds of thousands of jobs and a significant impact on the economy.

Q    Why defer to Congress?  I mean, this is almost certainly going to go down to February 28th, and the White House is going to have to engage then.  Why not now try to nip this in the bud and take the uncertainty off the table?

MR. FURMAN:  Jay is welcome to add to this too, but the President is looking for the best way forward.  What we’ve heard from both Democrats and Republicans in Congress is an interest in doing something more like the regular order, something more like the budget process.  And this would buy them time to do precisely what both parties in Congress say is the best way to deal with all of this.

I think if anyone here thought that inviting everyone up here this afternoon and locking them in a room would walk out with an agreement and solve this, of course, people would do whatever course it is.  But I’d say we’ve heard really from both parties that getting back, as I said, something more like regular order is the best way forward.  And the President is just trying to help foster that process which they’ve said is the best way to move this forward.

Q    If you buy several months here and you fail to reach the agreement in that period of time, do you then have an even shorter period of time to implement the same magnitude of cuts?

MR. WERFEL:  Yes.  It would depend on the nature of the deal.  But I would imagine that we would be at a smaller size from the $85 billion and a smaller period of time to implement.  So the notion here is to delay these very severe impacts that I've described, so that you have time to work out a deal that can delay and avoid them more permanently.

Q    But if you don't, you have then an even more serious problem?

MR. WERFEL:  I don't know that you'd know that it's more serious, depending on how the numbers go with the dollar decrease and the months.  But you'd still have a serious issue.

Q    Jason, you talked about replacing the sequester with something bigger and better.  Just to get straight the order of magnitude that you're talking about -- if $4 trillion over 10 years is the goal, $2.5 trillion have been done, does that mean you simply need to replace the $1.2 trillion in the sequester, add a couple of hundred billion more, and you're basically at the goal?

MR. FURMAN:  Yes, that's what the President has said, that ideally what the next phase would be, would be about a trillion and a half.  That includes interest associated with it.  And when you said $1.2 trillion for the sequester, that also -- that number for the sequester is the programmatic cuts plus interest.  And that is the type of magnitude he'd like to do.  But again, it's not just the magnitude.  It's also the timing of it, the balance of it, and the fact that you're accomplishing it with real reforms rather than just crude across the board.

Q    And is it your view that that trillion and a half should be 50/50 revenues and --

MR. FURMAN:  The President just said it should be balanced.  In fact, the final offer he had on the table to Speaker Boehner was one that if you just did -- was 50/50 at the time.  And we've enacted about half of the tax portion of that and almost none of the spending portion of that.  And so on a going forward basis, it would have a different ratio than when he originally proposed it.

Q    Danny, the way the law is written, if there's no deal on March 2nd, do you have to start making cuts right away?  Or can agencies sort of hope there will be a deal and just not -- and just delay making cuts?

MR. WERFEL:  Well, I wouldn't advise that they rely on hope.  (Laughter.)  They need to execute plans that protect their mission.  But as I mentioned, the legal requirement would be that when we get to September 30th, the end of the fiscal year, they will have to across government have spent $85 billion less.  And every agency is going to have to approach that differently. 

And if we have the sequester order, we will be working with agencies to making sure that they're doing prudent things to meet that legal responsibility.  Unfortunately, as outlined, those prudent things will help protect their mission as much as possible.  But ultimately, their mission will be compromised for the reasons which I outlined earlier.

Q    In your view, what sort of impact are we looking at for U.S. government civilian operations overseas, aside from the military?

MR. WERFEL:  Well, I mean, there are -- we can work with the State Department and get you more specific answers as an example.  But there are civilian personnel, both at the Defense Department, at the State Department and other agencies around government that will be impacted.  Because, as I said, unless it's exempted -- and there are certain activities, for example, VA, is explicitly exempted -- unless it's exempted, you're taking a cut in every segment of the organization.  And to the extent the organization has an international presence, then they will be taking cuts in that way, too.

And so I think probably more prudent to defer your question, in terms of more specifics, to an agency like the State Department or the Pentagon so they can give you more color to that. 

Q    To what degree would DOD be able to use transfer authority or reprogrammings to offset sequester and protect key programs and contracts?

MR. WERFEL:  So there is the -- one of the things that we've advised agencies, in terms of taking those prudent steps, is looking at ways in which they can manage through the sequester in the best possible way, again, under the guiding principle of protect mission first.  One of those tools they will have is a reprogram authority, where they can go back to Congress and potentially move money from account to account. 

But we've looked at this very closely, and Secretary Panetta is going to say it much better than I can -- with all the tools that they have, that will not get them in any way, shape or form in a place where they can tolerate the sequester safely.

Q    It won't eliminate sequester, but do you think it will make a big difference in any way?

MR. WERFEL:  No, I do not think it will make a big difference.

Q    I'm just wondering if you've been able to calculate what kind of impact, just on certainty of this, has already had on the business community.

MR. FURMAN:  We don’t have a precise quantification of that.  And I would just give the same example I gave before, which is, I think most of the observers of the first fourth-quarter GDP number thought that one thing that played a role in that was uncertainty about future defense spending levels, which led to some -- appeared to have led to some reduction in defense spending then, which adversely affected GDP.

So we don’t know the magnitude, but we do know the sign.  And the sign is unambiguously negative.

MR. CARNEY:  Last one for these guys.

Q    Should we interpret the President's statement earlier this week where he says that any short-term bill should have revenue attached as a veto threat on a two- or three-month bill that was cuts only?  Because there are a lot of Republicans who think that the White House is effectively bluffing, and if they were presented with a two- or three-month cuts-only bill, that he would sign it.

MR. CARNEY:  I mean, I would just point you to what the President said and what I have said, and that is that balance has to be part of our approach to deficit reduction.  And that applies to a short-term buy-down of the sequester, and it certainly applies to our approach to broader deficit reduction.

The President is extremely serious about this, because the consequences -- I mean, the alternative that you're suggesting and has been floated by Republican leaders is that you would ask the burden of further deficit reduction to be borne solely by seniors through significant proposed cuts in Medicare and Social Security and Medicaid; families who have children with disabilities; middle-class families who depend on other programs, and then say, but we will hold harmless wealthy individuals and corporations who enjoy substantial benefits through loopholes and other special interest aspects of our tax code.

That’s simply unacceptable to this President.  It's unacceptable, overwhelmingly, to the American people.  You would be saying that we can't ask folks who enjoy a benefit in the tax code for their corporate jets to give a little bit, but we should raise the eligibility age Medicare to 67.  That's a tough sell I think for anybody, even in some of the reddest of districts in this country.

Q    But in a two- or three-month bill you could easily --

MR. CARNEY:  Again, the President --

Q    -- put more of the President’s own cuts in a package  --

MR. CARNEY:  If you want to negotiate on behalf of the Congress on this, that would be great.  But the balance is essential.  It is essential because it’s the right way to go economically.  It’s the right way to go for the middle class, and it’s the way this President insists we move forward.

Q    But, Jay, there’s no balance in the sequester -- I mean, there’s no revenue in the sequester.

MR. CARNEY:  Let’s go back -- the mandate from Congress was to reduce the deficit by an additional $1.2 trillion.  There are a lot of folks in the Republican Party, as well as their supporters on op-ed pages, who have translated that to mean spending cuts only.  That is not what the law said.  And the President -- all I’m saying is the President says, and it is his position -- it is a position he held throughout this process -- that balance is how we’re going to approach it.

And at different times -- and their positions as strategy go are ever-changing.  But at different times there have been embraces of, as a matter of general principle, Simpson-Bowles, for example.  But what Republicans never tell you is that they all opposed Simpson-Bowles.  Every Republican on the commission voted against it, including the Chairman of the Budget Committee -- Republican House member rather -- and they would never go along with either the revenues or the defense cuts that were in Simpson-Bowles. 

So the fact of the matter is balance is the absolute right way to do this.  It’s the President’s position, and that's what it’s going to be.

Thanks, guys.  I got about five more minutes.

Q    Can you tell us about the storm -- what the President is doing to debrief --

MR. CARNEY:  Yes, I can give you a little update on the storm.  We’re going to have week ahead later in the day.  I don't have it for you now.  I want to thank Danny and Jason for coming out here.

FEMA is working closely with its partners, including the National Weather Service to monitor the developing winter storm in the Northeast.  FEMA’s regional offices in Boston and New York City are in contact with state emergency management counterparts.  FEMA’s National Watch Center here in Washington continues to monitor the situation and hold regular operational briefings with regional and federal partners as the severe winter weather advances and as impacts are felt throughout -- through the overnight hours into Saturday.

The President will obviously be updated on this regularly.  FEMA liaisons are working directly with our state partners at state emergency operation centers in the Northeast states including Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York -- both in Albany and New York City -- Rhode Island and Vermont.  These liaisons are in addition to the joint state and federal field office staff who are already in place to support ongoing disaster recovery efforts in Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont. 

I can refer you for more information -- at least to the American people in affected areas before and after storms -- to visit www.ready.gov.  But that's our update.

Q    Has the President spoken to any of the governors or state officials in the affected areas?

MR. CARNEY:  I don't have any conversations to read out to you. 

Mark.

Q    Jay, can we expect the sequester to be a large part of the State of the Union address?

MR. CARNEY:  I have no previews to give to you on the State of the Union address.

Q    Ever?  (Laughter.)

MR. CARNEY:  I’ll give you one Wednesday.

Ari.

Q    Can you talk about the decision not to send arms to Syrian rebels?

MR. CARNEY:  What question are you asking?

Q    Why the White House overrode recommendations from others in the administration to arm Syrian rebels.

MR. CARNEY:  Well, I am not going to get into internal deliberations about policy decisions of that nature, but I can tell you that, as the President and his national security team have looked at these issues, we have had to be very careful.  We don’t want any weapons to fall into the wrong hands and potentially further endanger the Syrian people, our ally, Israel, or the United States.  We also need to make sure that any support we are providing actually makes a difference in pressuring Assad. 

I think it’s widely viewed that more weapons in Syria -- that a lack of weapons is not the problem in Syria right now.  Keep in mind that there is no shortage, as I just said, of weapons in Syria.  That’s why we’ve focused our efforts on helping the opposition to become stronger, more cohesive, and more organized. 

Now, as a general principle, this is not the kind of thing around which there is one discussion.  We almost constantly or continually review what we’re doing with regards to Syria and that conversation continues.  But it is, of course, of paramount interest on this matter in particular that we not create a situation where weapons provided by the United States end up in the wrong hands and we thereby accidentally, if you will, create more danger for the United States, for the Syrian people, or for Israel.

Anybody else?  Victoria.

Q    Was the White House surprised that yesterday John Brennan would not say that waterboarding was torture when --

MR. CARNEY:  I thought John Brennan did an excellent job yesterday.  I know that’s how people in this building feel.  He demonstrated the breadth and depth of his experience in the field of intelligence and counterterrorism.  He provided I think what has been called by others one of the most expansive discussions of some of the very serious matters that we have undertaken in our effort to fight al Qaeda.  And I think it was -- the public interest was greatly served by that hearing yesterday.

Q    Were you surprised that he wouldn’t say that waterboarding was torture?

MR. CARNEY:  I think John Brennan answered the questions in depth on a number of subjects, so I would just point you to the answers he gave.

Anybody else?  One more.  Dan Lothian.

Q    Why isn’t the President going to the funeral of the young girl in Chicago that the First Lady is going to?

MR. CARNEY:  I think the First Lady is going to the funeral of a girl who was killed in Chicago.  So are, I believe, a few other officials from the administration.  I think that represents the feeling that the President and the First Lady both have about what happened to her and the tragedy that it represents both in real concrete terms to her family but also symbolically because of the tragedy of gun violence that our country has to deal with all too often.

Thanks, guys.  We’ll have a week ahead for you later this afternoon.

END
1:22 P.M. EST

Extending Middle Class Tax Cuts

President Obama urges Congress to act to avoid a series of harmful and automatic cuts—called a sequester—from going into effect that would hurt our economy and the middle class and threaten thousands of American jobs.

Here's quick glimpse at what happened this week on WhiteHouse.gov.

Vice President Biden's Chief of Staff Bruce Reed sat down with us to give us a quick update on the work the President and Vice President have been doing since the President released his plan to reduce gun violence.

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