Under ObamaCare, modest-wage earners face a choice: Pay premiums they probably can't afford or pay a bit less for policies with deductibles so high it makes them queasy.
The good news is that the initial ObamaCare premiums for the California market, heralded by state officials last week as "a home run for consumers," do appear to be somewhat lower than outside actuaries had warned.
The bad news is that the design of ObamaCare's subsidies still threatens to keep the young and healthy uninsured, driving up premiums for everybody else.
Consider the options for a 20-something single individual who earns 250% of the poverty level, or about $29,000.
Under the cheapest silver-level plan, that individual would have to pay $181 per month (after a subsidy of $34) on after-tax monthly income of about $2,050.
Though the silver plan is meant to be affordable, it's hard to see how such an individual could spare such a sum after rent, food and gas, medical bills and other necessities. Yes, medical bills. That's because the standard silver plan in California comes with a $2,000 deductible.
The law's crafters were smart enough to realize that not everyone will find a silver plan affordable, so they created the bronze option. For a bit less, $137 a month (after subsidies), a 21-year-old can get bronze coverage. Yet while the price is more realistic, the deductible of $5,000 may be so high that young people wonder whether the price is worth the sacrifice.
More good news: Those under 30 will have yet one more option, buying catastrophic coverage. These policies come with an even higher deductible of $6,400, but they are less expensive.
But here's the final piece of bad news: Because such policies come with no federal subsidies, workers earning 250% of the poverty level would pay the exact same $137 a month out of pocket for the cheapest catastrophic coverage as they would for the cheapest bronze-level plan.
That, in a nutshell, is the biggest problem with ObamaCare's subsidy structure. There are no subsidies for young people to buy the coverage that they really need and can possibly afford.
As a result, many may opt out and be stuck paying a tax penalty.
Andrew Malcom is on vacation.
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